BurryDCF

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Free Stock Valuation Tool

About BurryDCF

A dilution-aware stock valuation calculator that reveals what Wall Street hides: the true cost of stock-based compensation.

The Problem with Traditional Valuation

Wall Street has a dirty secret: they systematically ignore the true cost of stock-based compensation (SBC) when valuing companies. Here's how it works:

What Wall Street Does

  • ✗Adds back GAAP SBC expense as "non-cash"
  • ✗Reports inflated "Adjusted Earnings"
  • ✗Ignores actual cash spent on buybacks to offset dilution
  • ✗Hides RSU tax withholding payments

What BurryDCF Does

  • Calculates TRUE Owner's Earnings
  • Accounts for actual buyback cash outflows
  • Includes hidden RSU tax payments
  • Adjusts valuation for ongoing dilution
Michael Burry's Insight
Based on "Foundations: The Tragic Algebra of Stock-Based Compensation"
"The TRUE cost of SBC is not the GAAP expense—it's the actual cash spent to offset dilution through buybacks and RSU tax withholdings."

Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, developed a methodology to calculate what he calls Owner's Earnings—the true cash flow available to shareholders after accounting for the real cost of stock-based compensation.

Owner's Earnings Formula

OE = Net Income + GAAP SBC − Actual Buybacks − RSU Tax Withholdings

For example, NVIDIA's Wall Street "Adjusted Earnings" from 2018-2025 were $226B, but their TRUE Owner's Earnings were only $114B—a 50% difference! This means investors using traditional metrics are paying 2x what the company is actually worth.

How BurryDCF Works
1

Fetch SEC Data

We pull financial data directly from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (10-K and 10-Q reports), ensuring accuracy and transparency.

2

Calculate Owner's Earnings

We compute true Owner's Earnings using Burry's methodology, accounting for buybacks and RSU tax withholdings.

3

Apply Dilution Adjustment

We adjust the Gordon Growth Model formula to account for ongoing shareholder dilution from stock grants.

Data Sources
Transparent, verifiable data from authoritative sources

SEC EDGAR (Free)

Official SEC filings via the XBRL API. We extract:

  • • Net Income (NetIncomeLoss)
  • • Stock-Based Compensation (ShareBasedCompensation)
  • • Stock Buybacks (PaymentsForRepurchaseOfCommonStock)
  • • RSU Tax Withholdings (PaymentsRelatedToTaxWithholding...)
  • • Diluted Shares Outstanding

Polygon.io

Real-time market data including:

  • • Current stock prices
  • • Historical dividends
  • • Stock splits
  • • Company information
Key Features

Gordon Growth Model

Traditional perpetuity valuation

Burry Dilution Model

Dilution-adjusted fair value

Owner's Earnings

True cash flow calculation

CAPM Calculator

Automatic discount rate

SEC Data Provenance

See exact XBRL fields used

PDF/CSV Export

Full calculation audit trail

Sensitivity Analysis

Visualize parameter impact

Historical Charts

Price and dilution trends

Earnings Quality

Red flag detection

Ready to see the true value?

Start with 4 free valuations. No credit card required.

Try BurryDCF FreeLearn the Methodology

Disclaimer: BurryDCF is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. The valuations provided are based on mathematical models and historical data, which may not accurately predict future performance. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.